Stable Miscalibration in Large Language Models: A Practical View of High-Confidence Errors

Excerpt

arXiv:2608.13591v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-confidence errors in large language models are often treated as evidence of fragile internal inference. We study a different possibility: stable miscalibration, where a confident wrong answer remains locally stable under small perturbations. We combine two diagnostics: a label-aware output-level audit score that ranks domains by confidence variation and overconfident mistakes under a forced-answer baseline, and an internal sensitivity probe th