Non-Parametric Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction via State-Conditioned Transition Sampling

Excerpt

arXiv:2608.14349v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a training-free method for multi-modal trajectory prediction that achieves comparable accuracy to a 57M-parameter transformer while requiring no GPU and zero learned parameters. The method builds a transition table of historical state-to-next-position pairs and retrieves neighbors using a product kernel over spatial proximity, bearing, speed, and temporal context. Two inference modes operate over this shared representation: diversity-pen