When Prices Double in a Week: Forecasting of Agricultural Volatility in Import-Isolated Markets

Excerpt

arXiv:2606.29248v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-ga