From Recoverability to Functional Use: Certifying Temporal Reports in Time-Series Forecasting

Excerpt

arXiv:2608.10433v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Models increasingly accompany time-series forecasts with temporal reports---delays, leading indicators, or selected history---yet a correct report need not describe the computation that produced the forecast. We formalize this as a three-stage certification problem: \emph{recoverability} of the target from the realized trajectory, \emph{correctness} of the model's report, and \emph{functional use} of the reported history. For Gaussian point del