Distribution-Free Conformal Prediction for Steel Fatigue Strength: Marginal Validity Is Not Enough

Excerpt

arXiv:2608.07589v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Predicting fatigue failure in steel components experimentally is costly, requiring testing across multiple compositions and processing conditions, spurring research on data-driven prediction models. Studies using the NIMS MatNavi steel fatigue dataset often report high point-prediction accuracy but rely on aggregate error metrics, leaving uncertainty about the reliability of individual predictions and whether accuracy is consistent across