Less is more: error-distance scaling relation for data-efficient kilometer-scale downscaling of extreme heat

Excerpt

arXiv:2609.40140v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Extreme heat is where urban adaptation needs kilometer-scale data the most, but the simulations training a downscaler can cost more than they save, and how much is needed has not been identified. We measured it with CASPER, a U-Net with a structure-preserving loss downscaling 32 km reanalysis to 1 km temperature, humidity and wind, across 24 configurations of one to eight months. Held-out error grows linearly with climatological distance to the t