Nous: Learning and Certifying Memory Decisions Before Source Calibration

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arXiv:2610.00094v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Belief-based agent memory needs reliable decisions about current state, yet its evidence may be noisy, copied, or stale. Must a memory calibrate its sources before it can improve its decisions? We separate learning, calibration, and revision certification. On one four-model hidden Markov family, learning an unknown Bayes decision requires Theta(l^-2) records and certifying its improvement over an informative incumbent takes O(l^-2) fresh records fr