Foundations without Fundamentals: Zero-Shot Blind Spots in Time Series FMs

Excerpt

arXiv:2610.02058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Despite the success of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) on broad benchmarks, their ability to internalize basic temporal logic, especially in settings supported by exogenous covariates, remains under-examined. We introduce SimpleTimeBench, a diagnostic univariate and multivariate "unit test" suite for primitives such as monotonic trends, periodic signals and leading indicator covariates, scenarios where near-perfect forecasts should be trivial