AI Emulation of Stochastic Sudden Stratospheric Warming with Interpretable Latent Structure

Excerpt

arXiv:2610.02069v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rare weather regime transitions pose a challenge for data-driven modeling due to class imbalance. In this study, we develop a probabilistic deep learning emulator for a prototypical system with regime transitions, the stochastic Holton--Mass model of stratospheric variability, and analyze the structure of its learned latent space. The Holton--Mass model exhibits two metastable regimes, a strong and a weak polar vortex, maintained by nonlinear wav