Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation

Excerpt

arXiv:2602.08889v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantitative risk assessment relies on structured expert elicitation to estimate unobservable properties. The Delphi method produces calibrated, auditable estimates but requires months of coordination and specialist time, placing rigorous risk assessment out of reach for most applications. We propose Scalable Delphi, adapting the classical protocol for LLMs with diverse expert personas, iterative refinement, and rationale sharing. Beyond loweri