Learning to Simulate Individuals from Macro Social Signals

Excerpt

arXiv:2610.07062v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models are increasingly used to simulate how individuals respond to new situations, yet the behavioral reasoning behind these responses is either inherited from pretraining or learned from individual-level annotations, which offer limited behavioral diversity and little supervision of the reasoning itself. We propose to learn behavioral reasoning from prediction markets, whose price trajectories record how populations respond to real