Attenuated in-context identification in time-series foundation models: diagnosis under counterfactual inputs and repair by synthetic forced-system fine-tuning

Excerpt

arXiv:2610.08118v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Covariate-aware time-series foundation models (TSFMs) promise training-free what-if answers for instrumented plants: the change in output that a different future input would cause. We test this on forced engineering systems with exact counterfactuals, comparing Chronos-2, TimesFM-2.5 and TabPFN-TS with classical system identification fitted to the same context. Through their default covariate interfaces, TimesFM-2.5 and TabPFN-TS are memoryless: th