Probabilistic Counterfactual Inference for Discrete Outcomes in Gaussian-Process Causal Models

Excerpt

arXiv:2610.08689v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Counterfactual inference in Gaussian-process structural causal models (GP-SCMs) has been developed primarily for continuous endogenous variables, limiting applicability to causal graphs that contain discrete child nodes with continuous parents. We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for counterfactual inference with heterogeneous variable types by pairing GP predictors with explicit exogenous noise mechanisms. For discrete outcomes, we deri