Agent Policy-Value Audit: Separating Transition Composition from Event Selection in Financial LLM Agents

Excerpt

arXiv:2610.04040v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial LLM agents are often evaluated by comparing their end-to-end returns with those of a baseline and testing the paired difference against zero. This measures whether deploying the agent changes realized performance, but it does not isolate event-selection skill. An agent that frequently changes positions from flat to long can earn a positive paired return from an upward-drifting event pool even when it selects events at random. We propose t