Efficient Analog-Initialized Latent Transport for Spatially Coherent Probabilistic Downscaling from Global to Kilometer Scales

Excerpt

arXiv:2610.03736v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic downscaling must represent kilometer-scale structure left unresolved by a deterministic regional prediction. We introduce an analog-initialized latent transport method that uses historical regional residuals as a meteorologically informed empirical source. A frozen graph neural network predicts the deterministic state from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). For each input, residuals from 20 training dates with similar IFS cond